/Recent content on Ale ÁlvarezHugo 0.125.0es-esTue, 18 Aug 2026 00:50:00 +0200/posts/un-amargo-adi%C3%B3s-a-sumar/Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:50:00 +0200/posts/un-amargo-adi%C3%B3s-a-sumar/Cumplí 18 años en 2021. En las primeras generales de mi vida, voté a Sumar. Atendí la Asamblea de Sumar de verano de 2024. Me hice miembro el mismo día que abrieron los registros. Atendí la Asamblea de 2025 como Delegado Territorial y, ese mismo año, acepté la oferta de la coordinación de formar parte del Grupo Coordinador Autonómico y entrar de lleno en la vida orgánica del partido. Hice todo eso con un profundo convencimiento y una gran afinidad./posts/el-f%C3%BAtbol-cambi%C3%B3/Tue, 11 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0200/posts/el-f%C3%BAtbol-cambi%C3%B3/Hace unos meses que envío un vídeo paritcular a mis amigos tras ciertos partidos de fútbol. Tras partidos de posesión estéril, balones rasos y al pie, pocas ocasiones y ritmo bajo. Partidos, en definitiva, como el de España contra Cabo Verde de hace algo más de un mes, que me desesperó hasta el punto fatídico de, por primera vez contra mi propia selección, enviar el vídeo de Jorge D’Alessandro. Vaya por delante que no soy aficionado de El Chiringuito./posts/meses-menguantes/Tue, 17 Jun 2025 14:33:46 +0000/posts/meses-menguantes/Esos posts, vídeos y artículos prometiendo trucos y secretos para perder peso rápido y fácil: posiblemente el género más odioso de contenido online, en muchos casos aprovechando una inseguridad tan profunda para vender un cursillo de mierda o un libro posavasos. Hace falta valor para aprovecharse descaradamente del miedo de un grupo de personas: de su miedo al fracaso, miedo al rechazo, miedo al dolor, miedo a la enfermedad, miedo a la muerte./posts/my-christmas-carnival-featuring-kanye-west-and-ty-dolla-ign/Fri, 27 Dec 2024 00:03:46 +0000/posts/my-christmas-carnival-featuring-kanye-west-and-ty-dolla-ign/While Todd In The Shadows is someone I have watched and respected for a long time, I admit that I rarely go out of my way to watch his music reviews anymore. I’m not sure why, maybe at some point I just found peace in my own opinions, but my interest in reviews in general has been dwindling, and poor Todd has become a casualty in this imagined conflict. There is, however, an instance I always come back for: his year-end top tens, eventfully detailing his thoughts on the year in popular music, both for good and ill./posts/on-suicide/Thu, 26 Dec 2024 00:51:21 +0000/posts/on-suicide/I am typically pretty private about my suicide attempt, for reasons that can be both obvious and unexpected. There is a lot of what you would imagine: suicide comes with a pretty hefty social stigma (though, thankfully, people are increasingly willing to discuss it) but, more than anything, it is deeply uncomfortable for me to talk about what was probably the worst day of my life, even to people who I fully trust./posts/el-scrantoniano-o-no/Wed, 25 Dec 2024 15:26:20 +0000/posts/el-scrantoniano-o-no/Cambio de década, cambio de onda. Quizás eso es lo que quiso pensar Joe Biden al ser inaugurado presidente el 20 de Enero de 2021. Quizás quiso pensarlo porque a eso había sido llamado y, mientras se llegase al destino, las formas no tenían por qué importar demasiado. La campaña había resultado endiablada: Biden logró una victoria sobre la bocina al salir Nominao de las primarias con el apoyo del resto de moderados y, abanderado en la promesa de dejar atrás el Trumpismo, había logrado la victoria por un margen mucho más estrecho del esperado./posts/heartache/Sat, 16 Nov 2024 19:48:03 +0000/posts/heartache/I seize in the middle of the aisle. The bags of cereal sit around me, pointing their round bellies at my still figure, moving ever closer, trapping me in. A sea of plastic closes in on my shadow; then, around my legs, my fingers, my neck, my mouth. My one free eye detects someone approaching from the opposite end. I am powerless to stop her strides. She doesn’t seem to detect me at first, but then she does./posts/im-not-going-to-do-a-write-up-on-the-election/Fri, 08 Nov 2024 03:42:59 +0000/posts/im-not-going-to-do-a-write-up-on-the-election/This last November 5th, Americans chose Donald Trump to serve as their 47th President. This happened in a complex environment, where the unexpected twists and the underlying, hidden dynamics of the race were key. Very deep, insightful analyses will be carried out, but under no circumstances will you find any of them on this website. This is not due to yours truly going through a prolonged bout of depression to do the result (surprisingly, I’m doing alright) or because there is nothing left to say about how it all shook out (there is still low-hanging fruit most people haven’t gotten to, I think)./posts/no-voy-a-escribir-sobre-las-elecciones/Fri, 08 Nov 2024 00:45:20 +0000/posts/no-voy-a-escribir-sobre-las-elecciones/El pasado 5 de Noviembre de 2024, los ciudadanos de Estados Unidos escogieron a Donald Trump para que sirviese como su cuatrigésimo-séptimo Presidente. Ello sucedió en un entorno complejo, marcado por giros inesperados y dinámicas subyacentes ocultas, todo ello muy interesante. Se llevarán a cabo ricos y profundos análisis al respecto, otros serán más frívolos, pero adelanto que ninguno de ellos tomará lugar en esta página web, bajo ningún concepto./posts/diez-a%C3%B1os-no-es-nada/Wed, 13 Dec 2023 12:40:06 +0000/posts/diez-a%C3%B1os-no-es-nada/“Es evidente que los que estamos aquí somos de izquierdas, se nos nota”. Caras como las de Juan Carlos Monedero, Miguel Urbán, Teresa Rodríguez e Íñigo Errejón flanquean a un joven Pablo Iglesias, inclinado hacia dos micrófonos. El año 2014, al igual que Podemos, acaba de ver la luz. “Pero lo que estamos diciendo va mucho más allá de etiquetas ideológicas. Estamos diciendo que hay que defender la decencia, la democracia, y los derechos humanos”./posts/minuto-y-resultado-en-exclusiva-en-abc/Thu, 20 Jul 2023 21:58:15 +0000/posts/minuto-y-resultado-en-exclusiva-en-abc/Hace ya varios días que distintos medios, tanto de izquierda, derecha, centro y pa’dentro, publican “trackings” diarios de las elecciones generales para mantener más informada a su audiencia sobre los cambios que acaecen en la campaña. A diferencia de lo que piensan muchos, no se trata de encuestas al uso, sino de una especie de simulación de una encuesta: la muestra es muy parecida de una entrega para otra, así que es más fácil observar los cambios en la intención de voto de los distintos grupos./posts/no-vamos-a-morir-todos/Mon, 03 Jul 2023 01:55:48 +0000/posts/no-vamos-a-morir-todos/Feijóo arrasará, la derecha gobernará y Abascal será vicepresidente. Al menos, eso es lo que parecen creer todos los comunicadores públicos de cara a las elecciones del mes que viene. Es imposible llegar a la sección de opinión de cualquier diario, ya sea de derechas o de izquierdas, sin oír a alguien repetir la misma conclusión, a veces casi como si fuese una obviedad: la derecha va a ganar, lo bueno se va a acabar y vamos a morir todos./posts/i-played-tetris-and-had-an-existential-crisis/Thu, 09 Dec 2021 01:25:54 +0000/posts/i-played-tetris-and-had-an-existential-crisis/When Tetris Effect came out in 2018, I barely noticed. I had heard rummages about a new Tetris game that looked amazing, but I hadn’t seen anything concrete myself. At the end of the day, it’s just Tetris. What could be so interesting about it? Maybe it had the heart-pumping action of the arcade games, or perhaps it was a new mode that people were excited to try out. Either way, I felt like whatever the answer was wouldn’t interest me./posts/la-felicidad-de-un-libro/Wed, 17 Feb 2021 10:41:56 +0000/posts/la-felicidad-de-un-libro/Quizá este dato sorprenda, pero he sido, en cierto momento de mi vida, un ávido lector. He leído hasta que se me juntaban las líneas entre sí, hasta que los ojos me jugaban malas pasadas. Cada palabra era a la vez candado y llave, dejándose abrir por la previa y desbloqueando la siguiente. El ejercicio de leer me traía gran placer y felicidad, y organizaba mi vida alrededor de poder leer algunas líneas más, como un mendigo que cuenta céntimos para un café./posts/15-days-away-the-top-4-scrambles-for-an-iowa-victory./Sun, 19 Jan 2020 19:04:27 +0000/posts/15-days-away-the-top-4-scrambles-for-an-iowa-victory./It has now been close to a year since I last wrote anything for this blog, and while I know no one has been waiting for me to do so I felt the need to continue. The main reason? The Iowa caucuses are now exactly 15 days away and we are headed for a photo finish. As of today, the candidates with a reasonabe chance at an Iowa victory are former Vice-President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren and Mayor Pete Buttigieg./posts/elizabeth-warren-tulsi-gabbard-and-the-rest./Mon, 14 Jan 2019 22:50:42 +0000/posts/elizabeth-warren-tulsi-gabbard-and-the-rest./On December 31st, 2018, Elizabeth Warren announced that she was forming an exploratory committee to consider a run for president. This is the first step many candidates take in their journey for the presidency, and Warren is already touring through early states like Iowa and New Hampshire. It would be, to put it mildly, pretty damn unprecedented for her to not run for president after announcing an exploratory committee. I have been pretty bullish on Elizabeth Warren in the past, but she's had some rough patches since I published my last entry on this blog: bad net favorability ratings, dwindling enthusiasm, poll numbers falling, etc./posts/mike-espy-does-have-a-shot.-its-also-not-a-very-good-one./Tue, 27 Nov 2018 22:21:44 +0000/posts/mike-espy-does-have-a-shot.-its-also-not-a-very-good-one./On November 6th, 35 elections to the senate took place. Most of them weren't that competitive, but a couple stuck out as potentially very interesting. Indiana, Missouri and West Virginia had democratic incumbents in red states who could be in trouble. However, today we're not going to talk about that, because those races are pretty done and dusted. We're here to talk about the only senate election that is yet to be called, the Mississippi special election./posts/2020-candidates-ranked./Mon, 26 Nov 2018 23:50:17 +0000/posts/2020-candidates-ranked./It's been a week since I started my “The case for” series, and I've writen about all the major candidates and three minor ones since. On Sunday, I promised that today I would bring you my power ranking of 2020 democratic presidential contenders, a mere 15 months away from the Iowa caucuses. I'm not going to beat around the bush now, but I'm going to do a whole lot of that after the ranking itself, so there's no shortage of information./posts/the-case-for-richard-ojeda-andrew-yang-and-john-delaney-for-president./Sun, 25 Nov 2018 23:14:26 +0000/posts/the-case-for-richard-ojeda-andrew-yang-and-john-delaney-for-president./During the 2018 election, there was a lot of buzz around the race for West Virginia's third congressional U.S. House district. The incumbent at the time, Evan Jenkins, was retiring to run for senate, so he left an open seat that West Virginia state senator Richard Ojeda thought he could take. It was, by any standard, a tall order; WV-03 was 37% more republican leaning than the nation as a whole, the 43rd most republican district out of 435./posts/the-case-for-warren-for-president./Sat, 24 Nov 2018 21:56:55 +0000/posts/the-case-for-warren-for-president./After Scott Brown won the vacant seat for U.S. senate in Massachussets, an upset that stunned many, it became clear that his seat would be a prime target for democrats come 2012, and that they would have a pretty good shot at taking that seat back. Try to think of something similar to the Doug Jones situation we have on our hands right now. Ultimately, his challenger was law proffessor Elizabeth Warren, who had never held elected office but managed to get the nomination./posts/the-case-for-beto-for-president./Fri, 23 Nov 2018 20:49:28 +0000/posts/the-case-for-beto-for-president./For way too many months, the Texas senate race was both closely followed by most people and utterly dismissed by some prominent personalities. Kavanaugh seemed to give Ted Cruz a bump, even if it probably wore off, and early indicators looked good for his challenger, Beto O'Rourke. Early voting, while it doesn't mean much, looked pretty decent for democrats, an some final polls showed the race really close. And it was./posts/the-case-for-harris-for-president./Thu, 22 Nov 2018 21:24:31 +0000/posts/the-case-for-harris-for-president./In 2016, then attorney general Kamala Harris defeated longtime US House representative Loretta Sanchez in an election to Barbara Boxer´s senate seat. Shortly thereafter, rumors spread that the democratic establishment had chosen her as the DNC pick for president in 2020. They thought Harris could appeal to minorities enough to secure a path to 270 electoral votes, and they also thought that she could have enough appeal to both wings of the democratic party to win a primary./posts/the-case-for-sanders-for-president./Tue, 20 Nov 2018 22:27:29 +0000/posts/the-case-for-sanders-for-president./Throughout 2014 and most of 2015, Hillary Clinton looked poised to take the democratic nomination for president. most polls had her polling around 60%, sometimes even higher, and her possible challengers were way down below. The only one who came even remotely close was Joe Biden, and even he was a longshot. Needless to say, this is not how things shook out. Yes, Clinton did get around 55% of the vote, which is kind of close to what early polls showed./posts/the-case-for-biden-for-president./Mon, 19 Nov 2018 21:23:45 +0000/posts/the-case-for-biden-for-president./After 2016 there was a lot of doom and gloom within the Democratic party about how they were losing white, working class voters in the rust belt. However, after the election a couple of weeks ago, democrats are not nearly as concerned. They took Governor's mansions easily in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania and dethroned Scott Walker in Wisconsin, a 2 term Republican governor who democrats despise. They also retained 6 senate seats in the rust belt, and you could say that they did so quite easily./posts/2020-candidates.-strengths-and-weaknesses.-next-week./Sun, 18 Nov 2018 22:55:01 +0000/posts/2020-candidates.-strengths-and-weaknesses.-next-week./With the 2018 election fading from view, the focus is quickly shifting to 2020. Most of us know who the main presidential candidates will probably be, but how likely is each and every one of them to win? What is the ranking? Harry Enten and Chris Cillizza rank the potential 2020 democratic presidential candidates in this article and, while I think they are doing great work, I can't help but feel like they are missing a couple of things./posts/the-2018-races-that-are-yet-to-be-called./Sat, 17 Nov 2018 20:01:51 +0000/posts/the-2018-races-that-are-yet-to-be-called./While I'm sure a lot of people wish the election could be done and dusted right the day after, this is really never the case. Sure, most of the races get called the day of the election (even when they shouldn't have been) and most of the closely watched elections get called without all of the returns being in. However, every election cycle there are always a couple of races that have to go into overtime./posts/starting-out./Sat, 17 Nov 2018 15:18:13 +0000/posts/starting-out./With the 2018 midterms wrapping up (it will end any day now, I swear) and the 2020 campaign shifting gears (it will start any day now, I swear), I feel like it is imperative that quality reporting is issued about the trends of individual races and the likelihood of different outcomes. Hi, I'm Alex and this is my blog. I'm a 15 year-old kid from Spain who passionately follows American politics, and I think that, after closely following 2 election cycles, I have a good hunch of how an election is going to turn out by looking at the data./bio/Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000/bio/Biografía de Alejandro Álvarez Salamanca (Ale Álvarez) Nacido en Segovia en 2003, Alejandro Álvarez Salamanca —conocido públicamente como Ale Álvarez— es analista político, especialista en mercados de predicción, ensayista cultural y docente en tecnologías emergentes. Con una trayectoria iniciada a los 10 años, combina la precisión cuantitativa de la demoscopia con la experiencia política sobre el terreno, la docencia universitaria y la creación audiovisual. 1. El Despertar del Olfato Político y la Inmersión Internacional (2014–2020) En 2014, al calor de las elecciones europeas, Ale descubrió su vocación por desentrañar las corrientes del voto popular./work/Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000/work/Trabajo & Proyectos Seleccionados [Placeholder: Introducción al cuerpo de trabajo, colaboraciones, ensayos de fondo y proyectos de análisis.]