/tags/demoscopia/Recent content in Demoscopia on Ale ÁlvarezHugo 0.125.0es-esThu, 20 Jul 2023 21:58:15 +0000/posts/minuto-y-resultado-en-exclusiva-en-abc/Thu, 20 Jul 2023 21:58:15 +0000/posts/minuto-y-resultado-en-exclusiva-en-abc/Hace ya varios días que distintos medios, tanto de izquierda, derecha, centro y pa’dentro, publican “trackings” diarios de las elecciones generales para mantener más informada a su audiencia sobre los cambios que acaecen en la campaña. A diferencia de lo que piensan muchos, no se trata de encuestas al uso, sino de una especie de simulación de una encuesta: la muestra es muy parecida de una entrega para otra, así que es más fácil observar los cambios en la intención de voto de los distintos grupos./posts/no-vamos-a-morir-todos/Mon, 03 Jul 2023 01:55:48 +0000/posts/no-vamos-a-morir-todos/Feijóo arrasará, la derecha gobernará y Abascal será vicepresidente. Al menos, eso es lo que parecen creer todos los comunicadores públicos de cara a las elecciones del mes que viene. Es imposible llegar a la sección de opinión de cualquier diario, ya sea de derechas o de izquierdas, sin oír a alguien repetir la misma conclusión, a veces casi como si fuese una obviedad: la derecha va a ganar, lo bueno se va a acabar y vamos a morir todos./posts/15-days-away-the-top-4-scrambles-for-an-iowa-victory./Sun, 19 Jan 2020 19:04:27 +0000/posts/15-days-away-the-top-4-scrambles-for-an-iowa-victory./It has now been close to a year since I last wrote anything for this blog, and while I know no one has been waiting for me to do so I felt the need to continue. The main reason? The Iowa caucuses are now exactly 15 days away and we are headed for a photo finish. As of today, the candidates with a reasonabe chance at an Iowa victory are former Vice-President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren and Mayor Pete Buttigieg./posts/elizabeth-warren-tulsi-gabbard-and-the-rest./Mon, 14 Jan 2019 22:50:42 +0000/posts/elizabeth-warren-tulsi-gabbard-and-the-rest./On December 31st, 2018, Elizabeth Warren announced that she was forming an exploratory committee to consider a run for president. This is the first step many candidates take in their journey for the presidency, and Warren is already touring through early states like Iowa and New Hampshire. It would be, to put it mildly, pretty damn unprecedented for her to not run for president after announcing an exploratory committee. I have been pretty bullish on Elizabeth Warren in the past, but she's had some rough patches since I published my last entry on this blog: bad net favorability ratings, dwindling enthusiasm, poll numbers falling, etc./posts/mike-espy-does-have-a-shot.-its-also-not-a-very-good-one./Tue, 27 Nov 2018 22:21:44 +0000/posts/mike-espy-does-have-a-shot.-its-also-not-a-very-good-one./On November 6th, 35 elections to the senate took place. Most of them weren't that competitive, but a couple stuck out as potentially very interesting. Indiana, Missouri and West Virginia had democratic incumbents in red states who could be in trouble. However, today we're not going to talk about that, because those races are pretty done and dusted. We're here to talk about the only senate election that is yet to be called, the Mississippi special election./posts/2020-candidates-ranked./Mon, 26 Nov 2018 23:50:17 +0000/posts/2020-candidates-ranked./It's been a week since I started my “The case for” series, and I've writen about all the major candidates and three minor ones since. On Sunday, I promised that today I would bring you my power ranking of 2020 democratic presidential contenders, a mere 15 months away from the Iowa caucuses. I'm not going to beat around the bush now, but I'm going to do a whole lot of that after the ranking itself, so there's no shortage of information./posts/the-case-for-richard-ojeda-andrew-yang-and-john-delaney-for-president./Sun, 25 Nov 2018 23:14:26 +0000/posts/the-case-for-richard-ojeda-andrew-yang-and-john-delaney-for-president./During the 2018 election, there was a lot of buzz around the race for West Virginia's third congressional U.S. House district. The incumbent at the time, Evan Jenkins, was retiring to run for senate, so he left an open seat that West Virginia state senator Richard Ojeda thought he could take. It was, by any standard, a tall order; WV-03 was 37% more republican leaning than the nation as a whole, the 43rd most republican district out of 435./posts/the-case-for-warren-for-president./Sat, 24 Nov 2018 21:56:55 +0000/posts/the-case-for-warren-for-president./After Scott Brown won the vacant seat for U.S. senate in Massachussets, an upset that stunned many, it became clear that his seat would be a prime target for democrats come 2012, and that they would have a pretty good shot at taking that seat back. Try to think of something similar to the Doug Jones situation we have on our hands right now. Ultimately, his challenger was law proffessor Elizabeth Warren, who had never held elected office but managed to get the nomination./posts/the-case-for-beto-for-president./Fri, 23 Nov 2018 20:49:28 +0000/posts/the-case-for-beto-for-president./For way too many months, the Texas senate race was both closely followed by most people and utterly dismissed by some prominent personalities. Kavanaugh seemed to give Ted Cruz a bump, even if it probably wore off, and early indicators looked good for his challenger, Beto O'Rourke. Early voting, while it doesn't mean much, looked pretty decent for democrats, an some final polls showed the race really close. And it was./posts/the-case-for-harris-for-president./Thu, 22 Nov 2018 21:24:31 +0000/posts/the-case-for-harris-for-president./In 2016, then attorney general Kamala Harris defeated longtime US House representative Loretta Sanchez in an election to Barbara Boxer´s senate seat. Shortly thereafter, rumors spread that the democratic establishment had chosen her as the DNC pick for president in 2020. They thought Harris could appeal to minorities enough to secure a path to 270 electoral votes, and they also thought that she could have enough appeal to both wings of the democratic party to win a primary./posts/the-case-for-sanders-for-president./Tue, 20 Nov 2018 22:27:29 +0000/posts/the-case-for-sanders-for-president./Throughout 2014 and most of 2015, Hillary Clinton looked poised to take the democratic nomination for president. most polls had her polling around 60%, sometimes even higher, and her possible challengers were way down below. The only one who came even remotely close was Joe Biden, and even he was a longshot. Needless to say, this is not how things shook out. Yes, Clinton did get around 55% of the vote, which is kind of close to what early polls showed./posts/the-case-for-biden-for-president./Mon, 19 Nov 2018 21:23:45 +0000/posts/the-case-for-biden-for-president./After 2016 there was a lot of doom and gloom within the Democratic party about how they were losing white, working class voters in the rust belt. However, after the election a couple of weeks ago, democrats are not nearly as concerned. They took Governor's mansions easily in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania and dethroned Scott Walker in Wisconsin, a 2 term Republican governor who democrats despise. They also retained 6 senate seats in the rust belt, and you could say that they did so quite easily./posts/the-2018-races-that-are-yet-to-be-called./Sat, 17 Nov 2018 20:01:51 +0000/posts/the-2018-races-that-are-yet-to-be-called./While I'm sure a lot of people wish the election could be done and dusted right the day after, this is really never the case. Sure, most of the races get called the day of the election (even when they shouldn't have been) and most of the closely watched elections get called without all of the returns being in. However, every election cycle there are always a couple of races that have to go into overtime.